A penalty shootout is decided by each team taking up to five kicks from the penalty spot. If scores are level after five kicks each, the shootout continues with sudden death. The probability of winning depends on each team's penalty conversion rate — the percentage of penalties scored.

The mathematics uses the binomial distribution. By computing all combinations of possible scores for both teams after 5 kicks each, we can sum the probabilities for each outcome — Team A wins, Team B wins, or draw into sudden death. In sudden death, each round: A scores and B misses (A wins), B scores and A misses (B wins), or both score/miss (continue).

Real-world conversion rates at international level average approximately 74–78%. Teams with specialist penalty takers and strong psychological preparation consistently outperform this average.